After months of waiting for Donald Trump’s decline, Republican insiders now concede the poll leader could take two of the first four early voting states, though they caution his hold on Iowa is weak.

That’s according to the POLITICO Caucus, our weekly poll of the top strategists, operatives and activists in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

For this Thanksgiving holiday week, POLITICO analyzed seven months-worth of responses to our weekly benchmark question: Who would win your state if the voting were today? The result offers a snapshot of the current state of primary play — with Trump, Cruz, and Rubio grappling for wins in the early states — and chronicles Republicans’ slow acceptance of the real estate mogul as a contender with staying power.

Roughly three-in-four GOP insiders in New Hampshire and South Carolina, many of whom have been repeatedly and consistently skeptical of Trump’s chances, now say he would win their states if their primaries were held today.

“For the first time, I think the Trump phenomenon is becoming real,” a South Carolina Republican said.

“I do not think the media or the party establishment have a real grasp on how deep the anger and frustration is around the country,” that insider said when most recently surveyed last week. “After what have been ‘missteps’ by Trump in comparison of previous elections, he seems to have only strengthened. I still do not know if he can sustain it into the New Year — but after the Paris attacks, his stance on illegal immigration and unverified people coming into our nation has real impact.”

But his hold on Iowa and Nevada is more tenuous, according to insiders who note those states’ caucuses require significant organizational muscle to produce a win.

GOP insiders now have Cruz nudging Trump out of the lead in Iowa. That prediction came even before a Quinnipiac University poll this week showed the Texan running neck and neck with Trump. Neurosurgeon Ben Carson was the only other candidate to register significantly on this question. It’s the first time Cruz has led on this measure — after months of Trump and, briefly, Carson in front.

“I remain skeptical that Donald Trump's organization could turn out enough supporters today to win, and Ben Carson is fading on growing concerns that he's simply not up for the job,” said an Iowa Republican. “Cruz has been building — and continues to build — a solid organization. I'm not saying it won't change, although I've thought for some time now that Ted Cruz will win the Iowa caucuses — but this is the first week I'd put him on top in Iowa.”