My home-state poll numbers are bad, but yours are worse.
John Kasich sent that message Tuesday to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio after a Quinnipiac University survey showed the Ohio governor trailing Donald Trump 31-26 percent in the Buckeye State.
“When it comes to winning home state primaries, John Kasich is in a far superior position when compared to Senator Rubio,” Kasich’s campaign wrote on its blog, which featured three old polls from January that showed Trump destroying Rubio in Florida.
This is what the GOP presidential race has come to: downplaying Trump’s strength, fighting for second and bragging that everyone else is doing worse. In Kasich’s case, it also means cherry-picking numbers. Trump’s 5 percentage-point margin over Kasich isn’t much bigger than the 7-point lead Trump has over Rubio in the most recent Florida survey, conducted by Florida Southern College.
Kasich's campaign posted the statement as GOP elders and donors try to push him out of the race to help Rubio. Kasich said he's staying put. But even if Kasich left the contest, Rubio and Ted Cruz face a daunting challenge as Trump is poised to rack up large numbers of delegates in the states that vote before Florida and Ohio’s March 15 winner-take-all primaries.
Rubio’s campaign said it “feels good about where we are” but had no further comment.
Florida has 99 winner-take-all-delegates. Ohio has 66. A candidate needs 1,237 to win the GOP nomination. A Trump win in either state would be devastating for the respective home-state politician.
“If you can’t win your home state where you’re the favored son, you’re done. You’re finished,” said R. Bruce Anderson, Florida Southern College’s political science professor who conducted the Florida survey. “And winner-take-all is big. It means if you come in second, you’re still a loser.”
Anderson’s poll, completed Feb. 6, showed Trump leading Rubio 27-20 percent. Cruz was a distant third at 12 percent. Kasich’s campaign didn’t include this survey in its statement. It used three older polls, all completed before first-in-the-nation Iowa on Feb. 1. All have more candidates than exist now. The averages of the three polls Kasich featured showed Trump beating Rubio 41-18 percent.
What none of the polls has measured is the effect that Jeb Bush’s Saturday withdrawal will have on the race in Florida. The Florida Southern College and Quinnipiac surveys, which was able to account for Bush’s departure in Ohio, are different. Quinnipiac’s is more recent, surveyed more voters and its margin of error was 3.6 percentage points; Florida Southern College’s survey is older, smaller and had an error-margin of 6 percentage points.
Rubio told reporters in Nevada that he and Bush, his longtime friend and a political mentor, had spoken and will meet at some point. It’s unclear if Bush will endorse, or how much the endorsement will help.
Anderson said he’s not so sure Rubio is in a good place because of Bush’s departure. His poll showed Bush pulling just 4 percent of the GOP vote in Florida, which means his withdrawal might not help Rubio.
“If you assume every vote that goes to bush goes to Rubio, he’s still in trouble,” Anderson said. “Rubio’s home base is in Miami. But he might not realize how many people are ready to climb out of the swamps in rural Florida and vote for Trump.”
Rubio, Kasich and Cruz have to contend with that phenomenon everywhere. Trump appears to be gaining strength as the next batch of states vote before the March 15 winner-take-all contests. On March 1, 11 states — including Cruz’s home state of Texas — have 595 delegates up for grabs. The next group of states have an additional 368 delegates. Right now, before Nevada’s votes are tallied, Trump leads with 67 delegates. Cruz has 11, Rubio 10 and Kasich has five.
Kasich made clear Tuesday that efforts to get him out of the race aren’t working.
“I would hope they’d be clear the decks for me. I’ve spent the least amount of money and rising in the polls and you know I can win my home state and why would I be feeling pressure from them?” Kasich told reporters, according to NBC. “They oughtta be consolidating around me.”
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