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How Paul Ryan got to (almost) yes
10/21/2015   By Jake Sherman , John Bresnahan and Anna Palmer | POLITICO
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Ryan is demanding the endorsement of all the major caucuses within the GOP conference. | JOHN SHINKLE/POLITICO
 

Paul Ryan strode onto the United Airlines flight at O’Hare International Airport with a venti Starbucks coffee in his hand, and one of the biggest secrets in Washington stashed in his brown leather bag.

For much of the roughly 90-minute flight to Washington Reagan National Airport, Ryan (R-Wis.) read with his head down. Interrupted by sips of Dasani lime seltzer water and an occasional bathroom break, Ryan was reviewing the remarks that could potentially redirect his career, and will certainly alter the political trajectory of the beleaguered House Republican Conference.

Ryan was preparing to say he would run for speaker – if things were done his way.

He had spent all of last week figuring out what way that was. Ryan held frequent conference calls with top aides in Washington, gradually working through the scenario in which he could comfortably — and effectively — serve as the next House leader. Ryan chatted repeatedly with outgoing Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) for a week about his plans, and connected again with Boehner shortly before making his announcement to House Republicans Tuesday night. 

Late last week, Ryan, a father of three, came around to the idea of seeking the job he once dubbed as perfect for an empty nester. He settled on a five-point plan. The first was setting conditions under which the next speaker could thrive. Vision. Unity. Family. Regular Order. And do away with the "motion to vacate," a procedural tactic to force a floor vote on his speakership should he antagonize the far right.

But then came the hard part: getting everyone on board. 

Ryan would trade his quiet weekends spent in solitude with his family in Janesville, Wisconsin, for an obtrusive security detail, and his committee work for the plush speaker suites – only if the entire GOP conference was in sync. Clearing the bare minimum 218 votes on the House floor would get him the job, but he wants more than that. He wants a mandate. 

Before firmly committing to a bid, Ryan is demanding the endorsement of all the major caucuses within the GOP conference – the Republican Study Committee, the Tuesday Group and the House Freedom Caucus. Anything short of that, Ryan said, and he will gladly walk away and serve as chairman of the Ways and Means Committee while the House Republican Conference continues to flail.

"This is not a job I ever wanted or I ever sought,” Ryan told reporters Tuesday evening, standing behind the podium Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) normally uses to speak to the press. “I am in the job I've always wanted here in the Congress. I came to the conclusion that this is a very dire moment, not just for Congress, not just for the Republican Party, but for our country. I think our country is in desperate need of leadership."

If the House Republican Conference rallies around him by Friday, it might soon have Speaker Ryan.

Most of his inner circle had no idea Ryan was so close to running for speaker when he arrived on Capitol Hill Tuesday. But there were signs. Ryan's normally busy schedule was cleared. He skipped his weekly chairman meeting, and instead, stayed in his office holed up with staff, going over the remarks he would deliver in the Capitol basement later that night. Ryan needed to thread the needle. He had to tell them he would be honored to serve as speaker, but only if he had a chance to succeed in the job.

Ryan's only scheduled meeting was a private session with the leaders of the House Freedom Caucus. Idaho Rep. Raúl Labrador, South Carolina Rep. Mick Mulvaney, North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows and Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan requested the get-together, and Ryan wanted to hear them out. He listened intently, nodded and then told them that he wanted to know by Friday whether they would throw him their support. The Freedom Caucus wants to meet again with Ryan as soon as Wednesday, and the group hopes to make a decision on an endorsement as soon as possible. Before Ryan mounted his run, the Freedom Caucus endorsed Florida Republican Daniel Webster.

Meanwhile, the gigantic House Republican political machine has begun to hum. Lawmakers and aides at the National Republican Congressional Committee, the party’s campaign arm, began discussing informal plans to help facilitate Ryan’s desire to be in Wisconsin as much as possible. Committee chairmen and other members of the leadership team would need to step up their fundraising. 

Ryan would do more Washington-based events, and even use video chat to talk to donors, according to sources involved in the planning for a potential Ryan speakership. He would also appear on television more frequently than other speakers to communicate the party's message. 

"I have shown my colleagues what I think success looks like, what I think it takes to unify and lead, and how my family commitments come first," Ryan said. "I have left this decision in their hands, and should they agree with these requests, then I am happy and I am willing to get to work."

But Ryan has a host of messy problems to resolve in the days ahead.

The unity he's seeking has been extraordinarily elusive in the House Republican Conference. Ryan is nearly certain to win the support of the Republican Study Committee and the Tuesday Group. But the Freedom Caucus will prove more difficult. 

Ryan's demand for support isolated the 40-member House Freedom Caucus. Eighty percent of the Freedom Caucus needs to back Ryan for the group to endorse him. Should Ryan drop out of the speaker race because the Freedom Caucus decides to take a pass on him, it could throw the conference back into turmoil, and paint the hardline conservatives as inflexible and unwilling to compromise.

But some in the Freedom Caucus already are portraying Ryan's demands as too much. One of Ryan’s major "requests" is to change the use of the motion to vacate – a vote designed to oust the speaker, which has been used just twice in more than 100 years. Once was in 1910, when Joseph Cannon filed one to strip himself of the speakership. And in July 2015, North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows filed one to strip Boehner of his job. That Meadows motion never got a vote, but was the first move that sparked Boehner's resignation. 

Just hours after meeting with Ryan, and shortly after hearing him address the GOP conference, Labrador said changing the motion to vacate is a “non-starter.”

"I think we need to invite him in and have him expand on what he meant,” Labrador said. “You know he just gave a short speech.”

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